Mathematical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in Cameroon accounting the role of boosted immune systems

by Albert Kouchéré Guidzavaï¹, Joseph Yangla², Hamadjam Abboubakar³⁴*, Gnodandi Kaakréo², Rubin Fandio⁵, Irépran Damakoa².

¹ The University of Yaoundé 1, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box 812, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
² The University of Ngaoundéré, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 454, Ngaoundéré, Cameroon.
³ The University of Ngaoundéré, University Institute of Technology, Department of Computer Engineering, P.O. Box 455, Ngaoundéré, Cameroon.
⁴ The University of Ngaoundéré, School of Geology and Mining Engineering, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 115, Meiganga, Cameroon.
⁵ The University of Yaoundé 1, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, P.O. Box 812, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Received: 19.11.2025         Accepted: 19.12.2025         Published online: 14.01.2026

This study proposes and analyzes a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, explicitly accounting for the ability of the immune system in some individuals to eliminate the virus before they become infectious. A compartmental Susceptible–Exposed–Asymptomatic–Symptomatic–Hospitalized–Recovered (SEAIHR) model is formulated using both classical integer-order derivatives and Caputo fractional-order derivatives. The model is first examined by establishing the positivity and boundedness of solutions, followed by the computation of the basic reproduction number R0. The existence of equilibrium points is proven, and the asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is analyzed when R0 < 1. Epidemiological data from Cameroon are used to estimate model parameters and calibrate the system. Sensitivity analysis identifies the most influential parameters governing disease transmission. Numerical results indicate that R0 ≈ 1.6483, suggesting that COVID-19 remains endemic despite declining mortality. Simulations further show that enhanced immune responses may contribute to the relatively low morbidity observed in sub-Saharan Africa.

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