by Rubin Fandio¹, Hamadjam Abboubakar¹²³⁴*, Sylvain Ardo Gouroudja Banbeto³, Henri Paul Ekobena Fouda¹.
¹ The University of Yaounde 1, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon.
² The University of Ngaoundere, University Institute of Technology, Department of Computer Engineering, P.O. Box 455, Ngaoundere, Cameroon.
³ The University of Ngaoundere, LASE-lab, P.O. Box 112, Ngaoundere, Cameroon.
⁴ The University of Ngaoundere, School of Geology and Mining Engineering, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 112, Meiganga, Cameroon.
*Corresponding author: [email protected]
Received: 16.02.2025 Accepted: 26.05.2025 Published online: 07.09.2025
Cholera is a diarrheal disease that was declared a pandemic in 2010, highlighting its reemergence. Southeast Asia and Africa remain at the greatest risk of widespread transmission. The purpose of this study is to develop and analyze a cholera model that incorporates both integer- and fractional-order derivatives in the Caputo sense. After formulating the model, we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of its solution. We then identify the cholera-free equilibrium point and establish its local and global asymptotic stability whenever the epidemiological threshold Rc is less than one (Rc < 1). Using real data, we calibrate the model through parameter estimation and forecasting. With the estimated parameters, we observe that Rc ≈ 2.0439 for the fractional-order parameter χ = 1, and Rc ≈ 1.1121 for χ = 0.90. To determine which model (classical or fractional) better describes the behavior of the disease, we compute the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for each case and find that RMSEξ=1 = 67789.02 > RMSEξ=0.90 = 67767.54. This demonstrates that the fractional-order cholera model is more suitable for predicting the disease dynamics. Finally, to simulate our fractional model, we employ the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton approach and run numerical simulations to confirm our theoretical conclusions.